In a total contempt for democracy Ireland will hold a second referendum

On 12 June the Irish people rejected in a referendum the Lisbon Treaty. They were the only ones allowed to have they say on the Treaty and they said "No" however that was the wrong answer to the EU leaders who said that the Lisbon Treaty will enhance democracy in the EU.

Following the No vote, the other EU Member States have been putting Ireland under an increasing pressure to find a way to pass the Lisbon treaty. It was well known since the beginning that the only way that the Irish Government could please the other EU Governments was to hold another referendum. Hence, the Irish Government could not ask the Irish people to vote again on the exactly same text therefore it has been seeking a "Lisbon Plus" treaty which could survive a second referendum.

On the 12 December, the European Council discussed the factors intended to respond to the concerns expressed during the Irish referendum and put forward a road map to enable the Treaty of Lisbon to come into force before the end of 2009. Brian Cowen has presented the government analysis on why the Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty. Mr Cowen outlined several issues where he would like to have some “legal guarantees” from the EU leaders such as, that Ireland's traditional policy of neutrality as regards Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) would be kept, that the Irish constitution's provisions on the “right-to-life, education and family will not be affected by the Lisbon treaty and that the Lisbon Treaty has not extended the EU´s competences over taxation.

The Irish Government also asked for assurances “that the Union attaches high importance to the protection of workers' rights and public services” but that Member States are responsible for the delivery of education and health services and that the Lisbon Treaty provisions will not affect the role and discretion of national, regional and local Governments in providing and organising non-economic services of general interest.

The European Council has agreed that, provided Ireland ratifies the Lisbon Treaty all the Irish concerns “shall be addressed to the mutual satisfaction of Ireland and the other Member States.” According to the Council Conclusions “the necessary legal guarantees” will be given to address the Irish concerns.

The European Council has promised to Ireland “legally guarantees” on three issues taxation, neutrality, and family-related issues but not on social issues. The European Council Conclusions read “In addition, the high importance attached to the issues, including workers' rights, set out in paragraph (d) of Annex 1 will be confirmed.” According to the EuropeanVoice the UK has insisted to the social issues and workers' rights to be removed form the “legal guarantees.”

Moreover, the European Council agreed that on the condition that the Treaty of Lisbon enters into force, a decision will be taken in order to the Commission to continue to be made by one representative from each member state. Hence, Ireland can keep its EU Commissioner but first it has to ratify the Lisbon Treaty.

Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that under the existing Treaties the Council and the Commission President adopts the list of the commissioners in accordance with the proposals made by each Member State. However, under the Lisbon Treaty such list will not be based on “proposals” but “suggestions” made by Member States. Hence, each Member State will suggest different candidates, and the Council and the President will choose from there. However, they still have to be subject to the “vote of consent” of the EP which complicates things even further. This provision will limit even more the influence of the Member States it would have been much easier and more democratic each Member State to appoint one Commissioner.

According to the Council Conclusions “In the light of the above commitments by the European Council, and conditional on the satisfactory completion of the detailed follow-on work by mid-2009 and on presumption of their satisfactory implementation, the Irish Government is committed to seeking ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon by the end of the term of the current Commission.” Hence, the Irish government has committed itself to hold a second referendum on the Treaty. The date is not specified but the council conclusions text implies late October or early November 2009 when the mandate of the current European Commission ends.

This is outrageous, the EU leaders, including Gordon Brown, are demanding Ireland to hold a second referendum while they denied their people to have a say.

The EU Leaders have promised “the necessary legal guarantees” to address the Irish people's concerns on the right of Ireland to decide tax policy, military neutrality and ethical issues. It seems that the EU leaders are convinced that their guarantees would persuade the Irish people to vote yes in a second referendum, hopefully they are terrible wrong.

The Irish Government has not respected the people's democratic vote. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said after the summit "Today we have the clear evidence the European Union is ready to respond. (…) On the basis of the agreement today, (…) I would be prepared to return to the public, to put a new package and seek their approval of it." Moreover he said, "I am confident we will be successful in a second vote.”

At the moment Ireland only got a declaration from the European Council that its concerns would be addressed through "legal guarantees." The precise nature of the guarantees, would be worked out in the coming months. It is not clear yet how Ireland will get its “legal guarantees.” In fact, some member states, including the UK, had already asked for more precision on the nature of such guarantees as they are concerns that they would re-open the ratification of the Lisbon treaty.

Unsurprisingly, the EU leaders are not willing to change the Treaty text as in that case they would have to go through the ratification process again as it would be legally a new treaty. Consequently, they would not like to consider possible opt out’s on certain Treaty’s provisions as that would require all Member States to go through all the ratification process again in order to make the opt-out protocols legally biding. Obviously, declarations are for them the best solution but they are not legally biding.

Declarations would have changed nothing in the Treaty. In fact, the Irish government is aware that declarations would not be able to convince the Irish people that the treaty has been changed. The deceit would have been too obvious in that case.

Nicolas Sarkozy has announced after the EU summit that in order to make the EU leaders commitments legally binding without reopening the treaty ratification procedure, the Ireland guarantees would be included in a protocol together with Croatia's accession treaty to the EU in 2010 or 2011. It seems that the “legal guarantees” would be introduced in a protocol, the “Irish protocol”, attached to the accession treaty when Croatia joins the EU. However, Slovenia is blocking accession talks with Croatia. There is still uncertainty over Croatia's accession. Nevertheless, if Ireland votes again and says yes and the Treaty enters into force by the end of 2009 beginning of 2010 the Ireland protocol will enter into force one or two years after.