The European Commission has put forward a proposal to lift visa restrictions on Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro from 1st January 2010 following a comprehensive study of these countries’ adherence to the terms of the “White Schengen” list.

This proposal is in spite of the fact that only Macedonia was judged to be fully compliant with the demands of the list. Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia have a combined population of 10 million.

Bosnia, Albania and Kosovo have been excluded from this scheme as they have not made sufficient progress in the areas of border management, fighting organised crime and corruption, and respect for civil rights. This concession could be extended to Albania and Bosnia- Herzegovina if they adopt biometric passports in 2010. Bosnia has since launched a new biometric passport to be issued to citizens from 1 January 2010.

Olli Rehn, The EU Commissioner for Enlargement has stated, “The citizens of these countries will be able to visit family and friends in the European Union, as well as spending their holidays here without having to undergo lengthy visa procedures. In a nutshell, this will mean a further Europeanisation of the civil societies in the Western Balkans.”

The International Monetary Fund is considering a plan to provide aid programmes in the form of bailouts to countries who are struggling most due to the economic downturn – Macedonia is one of the 10 countries that has been suggested for this proposal. Serbia is also rumoured to be in desperate need of financial assistance.

Due to the hardships in their nations, there is every chance that Serbian and Macedonian citizens may not return after a vacation due to the bleak prospects at home.

A possible reason as to why this visa-free concession includes Serbia may rest with the South Stream pipeline project. The pipeline will connect Western Europe with the Russian Black Sea coast passing through Turkey before reaching Bulgaria. It will then split into two branches, one of which will pass through Serbia. Serbia could become a key player in the renewable energy sector with the renovation of the Kolobara power plant and new competition laws set for ratification by 2010. Serbia is strategically placed to become the gateway to the Balkans, with Belgrade viewed as the economic hub of the region. However, Serbia remains a cause for concern due to the question of Kosovo and war criminals, which may deter foreign companies from investing in the country. Regional disparity in Serbia may be accentuated as this visa-free proposal expressly excludes citizens of Kosovo.

Montenegro gains its main income from tourism, to which Russian holidaymakers contribute the majority of profits. As a result of this proposal, Montenegro may not seem as attractive to Russian visitors as they will be burdened with applying for visas to enter the country. This has wider implications as many Russian companies have relocated and set up casinos and other projects in Montenegro following the gambling ban that was enforced in Russia from 1st July 2009.

Although this proposal does not have major opposition in the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament, European citizens have shown reluctance to the European project. Support for EU expansion is low amongst a significant proportion of European citizens in the bloc arguably due to increased fears of enhanced competition from Eastern Europe in the form of cheap labour and products, especially in the current economic climate of recession and increasing unemployment.

It can be argued that the most recent enlargement of the Union encompassing Bulgaria and Romania was unnecessarily rushed as neither country had made sufficient progress to tackle widespread corruption and organised crime.

The decision to extend this proposal to Serbia and Montenegro could set a worrying precedent as neither country satisfies the necessary conditions to be classed as official candidates for full membership. Visa-free travel may become a prerequisite to Union membership that candidate countries may use as a bargaining tool in the future.