Italian regional elections: the centre-right historic win in Umbria will have significant repercussions at a national level

The right-wing coalition led by ex Interior Minister Matteo Salvini have scored a resounding historic victory in the central Italian region of Umbria – ending fifty years of unopposed left-wing rule and jeopardising the resilience of the national government. Mrs Donatella Tesei, the right-wing candidate, was elected President of the Umbria region after obtaining a resounding 57,5% of the vote on Sunday. The vote restores impetus to the Lega Nord and centre-right coalition after this Summer’s government crisis-when, the Five Star Movement unexpected U-turn and its unnatural alliance to the centre-left pro-EU Democratic Party (PD) took over from Mr Salvini in government. The vote has served as a first electoral test for Italy’s new centre-right coalition, giving a boost to Mr Salvini’s Lega Nord party who obtained a share of 37% of the votes. Yet, it is also the case across Italy, where most recent polls show the Lega Nord right-wing coalition to be ahead in the national polls by at least 6% points.

The region of Umbria marks the eighth straight victory for the centre-right in regional ballots since the last election in 2018. Losing one of Italy’s staunchest left-wing strongholds weakens the current Government’s very existence which Mr Salvini defined as “unauthorised, and not representing the Italian people”. After  leading a rally in Rome on the 19^th October he declared that the current government’s days were numbered, while Mrs Meloni, whose party won by a successful 10,4%, commented” we will continue to defend God, the homeland and the family, – also in Umbria”. Unlike the South of Italy, rising anti-establishment sentiment has not translated into votes in the Italian central region for the Five Star Movement, who precipitated to a mere 7%.

The Government will face its next test in regional elections in Calabria in December and Emilia Romagna in January – the latter another strong left-wing traditional stronghold. These could also spell problems for Mr Conte’s precarious Government’s longevity, after having failed its first electoral test. If the current left-wing coalition should  also fail, particularly in Emilia Romagna, the present government’s coalition and its very legitimacy would be put into question. “The only way forward would be elections”, Mr Salvini commented.