Joe Cookson argues that even though the average Conservative lead in the polls is around 20 points, a separate poll has revealed that the public trust Labour 25 per cent to 24 per cent over the Conservatives, on what should surely be natural Tory territory, Europe. Since Cameron is not ‘light years ahead of his party’ as commentators are avowing, and if the Tories fail to present standpoints on a post-ratification referendum on Lisbon, taking back economic and social powers from Brussels currently undermining governance from Westminster, and the logistics of withdrawing from prohibitive international legislation like the Human Rights Act or amending the European Communities Act, then the popularity of the party might nose-dive once again. 

A YouGov poll last month found that 70 per cent of the British public ‘disapprove of the government’s record to date’ whilst 76 per cent are ‘dissatisfied with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister‘. The average Conservative lead in the polls is around 20 points, whilst before the last election Labour had a stable 5-10 point advantage under Tony Blair. After a year of Gordon Brown’s premiership, two-thirds of people say they expect the Conservatives to win the next general election be it in 2009 or 2010. Surely, given such figures, one must expect that much if not all is rosy, and that despite David Cameron’s assertions about victory ‘not being in the bag’ and his party not being smug, the Tories should be going back to their constituencies and preparing for Government after conference season.

There are a number of problems with the direction the party is travelling in, away from the mainstream of British public opinion on some key issues however. At the turn of the year, another poll suggested that if presented with a choice between the three main parties over who they trusted to manage Britain’s relations with Europe, 39 per cent of the public favoured none of them or other parties. In fact the poll revealed that the public trust Labour 25 per cent to 24 per cent over the Conservatives, on what should surely be natural Tory territory.

These indications about the popular mood not only suggest next year’s European elections may not be quite the success this year’s local and mayoral elections were for Cameron, but they also highlight widespread confusion over which way the party faces over Europe. European policy isn’t the only issue which needs to be addressed, nor does one wish to descend into arguing about the relative electoral importance of particular ideas; proposals on tax and spend will certainly get more media coverage during an election campaign. A minority, again how large or small this is can be difficult to ascertain, must hear something about Conservative plans, they must be united, clear and propose to cut back on waste coming from Brussels.

It is because of a lack of clarity on these issues, and not a small deal of internal division, since 1992 when the right last triumphed in the UK, that more than five million Conservative voters have gone missing. Whilst thoughtful and realistic proposals on Europe wouldn’t bring them all back, one would be foolish to assert that such proposals would be a magic wand, this area is symbolic for the party. When candidates get a popular Conservative message across in their constituencies it is very well received; this now needs to happen on a national level coming from the top of the party hierarchy.

Old-fashioned Toryism seems to be back in fashion, but perhaps just at the time when the party is in danger of abandoning it over issues such as Europe. Despite the government’s crushing unpopularity only 37 per cent choose Cameron when presented with all the available options, and only that familiar stubborn 33 per cent expect a Conservative government under him to perform any better than the present one.

This illustrates that Cameron is not ‘light years ahead of his party’ as commentators are avowing, but that if the Tories fail to present standpoints on a post-ratification referendum on Lisbon, taking back economic and social powers from Brussels currently undermining governance from Westminster, and the logistics of withdrawing from prohibitive international legislation like the Human Rights Act or amending the European Communities Act then the popularity of the party might nose-dive once again in the face of such paralysis. Forget the unworkable ‘broad church’ or ‘ministry of all the talents’ and lets make some tough decisions on Europe which can only strength the currently tenuous popularity of the Conservatives.

Joe Cookson, The European Journal, October 2008.