By Paola Del Bigio

European Director

It is extraordinary how little coverage was given in the British media to the Italian elections recently, and almost nothing about what the new Prime Minister thinks or has publicly stated. Given that she is by any standards a Eurosceptic, this article helps to give some background.
Giorgia Meloni of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) is set to lead Italy’s next government following her party’s victory in the 2022 Italian general election. After a series of technochratic Prime Ministers, Mrs Meloni has pledged to give Italy institutional continuity and a lasting return to politics supported by the strength of a true popular mandate which she has secured for her party, as Fratelli d’Italia has now a clear majority to govern in both chambers of Parliament (Camera and Senato), though not a required majority to change the Constitution. With 26% of the overall vote, Fratelli d’Italia has emerged as the largest party in the Italian election and in the centre-right coalition, which has scored an overall vote of 44% in an alliance with Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Salvini’s Lega Nord.
The incoming Prime Minister has not only emerged as a clear winner in the September 25th elections, but she has become the first woman to head the first right wing government in the country’s history after WW2.
A capable politician, Mrs Meloni will govern a largely Eurosceptic coalition and has consistently pledged to defend Italian interests in Europe more robustly. In her own words “ for the EU, the party is over”. Significantly, the day after her win at the Italian polls, a video of her 2019 speech to the “World Congress of Families” went viral on social media which summarizes her party’s policy agenda, “ We will defend God, Christian values, country and family”, while attacking woke ideology and globalist corporations. It will attempt to implement stricter measures on cultural and social issues, which could include new measures on LGBTQI rights , gender equality and will defend traditional religious values within the Italian education system.
Mrs Meloni will also be the central figure in the new administration, thus allowing her to implement her policy agenda.
Just after claiming victory in the national elections, Mrs Meloni expressed her intentions of not renewing Italy’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signed in March 2019 conceived in order to improve the connectivity between Italy and China. Italy will no longer collaborate with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to finance various projects and link the Italian transport system with the TEN-T network and China’s New Silk Road. Among Mrs Meloni’s main reasons for not renewing the collaboration are China’s positions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as China’s attitude towards Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Uyghurs.
Other key targets are to include cutting taxes on energy, renegotiating Italy’s EU Recovery Funds, responding to the energy crisis, and getting rid of the so-called ‘citizen’s income subsidy (Reddito di Cittadinanza) for low income earners, notably in southern Italy, which was introduced by the Five Star Movement in 2018.

Will Italy turn away from the European mainstream?

The key showdown for Fratelli d’Italia and Mrs Meloni will however inevitably arise when setting Italy’s new relationship with Brussels. As President of the European Conservative and Reformist Group, Mrs Meloni will stress the importance of nation states in the process of European integration. The new cabinet will also undoubtedly distance itself from the Franco-German axis and will be on course to clash with Brussels on a range of issues, including rule of law, domestic civil rights, migration policy and future EU policies covering debt and fiscal discipline, to replace the outdated Growth and Stability Pact. This could align the party to Poland and Hungary on certain policy areas by utilising veto powers.
Clarifying her position on the EU stage, Mrs Meloni said she would never become “anyone’s cheerleader” and emphasised the subsidiarity principle by referring that “the EU should do less, do it better and not have a word on everything”. Her speeches on the EU have been eurosceptic. The Social Democratic government in Berlin does not approve of Meloni. Speaking in the Chamber of the Italian legislative, Mrs Meloni pointed the finger against Germany, questioning its europeanism in difficult times such as these, and questioning its unwillingness to cooperate in order to achieve a European consensus on a price gas cap.
The new Prime Minister has also set out her vision of Italy’s relationship with Europe, including that her government is likely to remain within the European institutions because “ this is the place where Italy will make its voice heard loudly”. This is not dissimilar to what the UK heard for decades before it left. She has added that “ her right wing coalition did not want to slow down or sabotage European integration but to steer it to be more efficient in its response to crisis .. and to be closer to people and businesses”. But she also warned that “ the EU should not be an elite club with first or second division members .. or a company controlled by a board of directors who have to keep the books in order..”. All very familiar to those who heard UK leaders over the years.
Undoubtedly, Mrs Meloni takes power at a difficult time for the country’s economy and will face a series of difficult challenges over the coming months.
Mrs Meloni could face tensions with her coalition partners who have diverging positions on numerous issues including regional autonomy and pensions. Her ability to deliver on her allies’ election promises, such as blocking a rise in the retirement age, could be hampered by the need to find new temporary measures to cushion the effects of energy price hikes and inflation.
Despite the heavy burden of higher energy costs, Mrs Meloni has pledged however not to alter Italy’s position as a loyal partner to NATO and Ukraine. Fratelli d’Italia has consistently reaffirmed its support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia committing to both arms supplies and sanctions against Russia and an unstinted alliance with the US. In her own words “ Those who believe it is possible to barter Ukraine’s freedom for our peace of mind are wrong. Giving in to Putin’s blackmail on energy … would pave the way to further blackmail and even higher energy prices”. This has differentiated Fratelli d’Italia from both Lega and Forza Italia, her coalition partners, which which have been more lukewarm about military support for Kyiv, right from the beginning of the wa r.
Also on immigration, while Mrs Meloni has consistently called for migrants to be blocked in Africa, Mr Salvini wants to bring back his own security decre es whic h would undermine humanitarian protection programs. If further sanctions packages are seen as onerous for Italians, Salvini could very well create difficulties, particularly as he attempts to regain support within the centre right coalition, after a catastrophic election result for his party.
The first litmus test in Mrs Meloni’s government however, will be the 2023 budget to be approved by Brussels in November.
Italy’s Recovery and Resilience plan which Mr Draghi negotiated with Brussels, could also become a new battlefield, as it requires Italy to proceed with reforms of its administration and justice system in order to secure the next tranche of €200 bn. EU funding from the overall €750 bn. post-pandemic economic recovery plan. The incoming government will have up to December to meet 55 milestones and targets set by the European Commission. Mrs Meloni has already raised the need during her campaign for a review, given the increased raw materials costs, resulting in critical comments by her opponents and coalition partners. It is unlikely however that Mrs Meloni will jeopardise funds negotiated by her predecessor, with whom she intends to have a constructive relationship for Italy’s benefit, as she will be well aware of the economic pressures facing Italy in the coming months. The new Prime Minister will therefore pick her fights carefully, given Italy’s debt mountain of 150% GDP and given that there is no reason to agitate the markets sofar, as her predecessor, Mr Draghi, has already implemented tough reforms to satisfy Brussels requests.

Conclusion

Mrs Meloni will need to mediate between the coalition partners building a constant dialogue with Berusconi and Salvini. Her choice of Ministers in key areas such as the economy, ( Mr Giorgetti,  Lega) defence, (Mr .Crosetto, Brothers of Italy) foreign policy (Mr. Tajani, Forza Italia) European policies ( Mr. Fitto Brothers of Italy) is already an important indication per se of the new government’s political agenda, governability and stability, which was launched on the 25th October. The war in Ukraine complicated Meloni ’s decision as she has had to avoid appointing Russophile ministers, considering that one third of the seats in the new Italian Parliament have been filled by parties with an ambiguous record on sanctions towards Russia and military aid to Ukraine.
As Europe enters another precarious moment, driven by the post-pa ndemic recovery, the Ucrainan war, energy crisis and rising inflation, the EU would be well advised to consider the lessons coming from the Italian citizens, as Fratelli d’Italia’s thoughts may well soon turn to the EU ’s democratic deficit. As Frate lli d’Italia ‘s MEP Nicola Procaccini put it “What is important, is that Italy plays its game”.