The House of Commons considered yesterday the economic implications for the UK of an EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement. Bill Cash made the following interventions:

John Healey (Wentworth and Dearne) (Lab): I beg to move,

That this House has considered the economic implications for the UK of an EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement.

I was glad to secure this debate, with the support of the hon. Members for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb) and for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Jonathan Edwards), and I am glad to open it within a week of formal negotiations starting in Washington on a comprehensive trade deal between the European Union and the US or, as we have been led to refer to it, a transatlantic trade and investment partnership. It is fitting that the debate should be taking place in Back-Bench business time, because I think that underlines the strong cross-party support for a full and fair trade deal, so long as it is clear that there will be benefits to British consumers and workers as well as British businesses.

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Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con): The right hon. Gentleman may know that the European Scrutiny Committee is looking at the whole question of the
scrutiny of this agreement and, indeed, other free trade agreements. One of the problems is that the negotiating mandate is not available to Parliament on the conventional basis until the conclusion of the agreement. We are pursuing that matter with the Prime Minister, and I have just received a letter from him about it. I shall refer to that in my speech.

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Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con): It is quite a big ask to do it in seven minutes, Madam Deputy Speaker, although I will not attempt to go through all the issues for that reason. I am extremely aware of the time constraints, so I will try to concentrate on the main issues and set out some headline points that are worth bearing in mind.

Curiously enough, I approach this issue in line with the EU constitution, by applying the precautionary principle. I would not want to be over-enthusiastic about something until I knew what the terms were. There has been a great deal of hype about this issue and some exaggerated views expressed. I would be cautious, for a variety of reasons, about making any assumptions that such an agreement will ever happen, given the Doha round and all that happened there. Nor would I wish to become over-excited about it necessarily bringing the benefits that have been described, because nobody knows.

Part of the reason for that is that the negotiating mandate is not available, as I said in an intervention. As Chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee, I have correspondence with the Prime Minister and the Minister for Trade, Lord Green. At the moment, the whole thing is under discussion. Let me quote from a letter I received on 10 July from the Prime Minister, in which he said:

“Both the EU and the US are aiming for the maximum level of ambition”—

I am always keen on ambition, as long as it does not vaunt itself—

“in these trade negotiations.”

The letter continues:

“This means that all sectors are within scope, except, as I mentioned, the audiovisual sector”—

that was in reply to a point I made the other day in response to a European summit statement—

“although there is the option to include the sector at a later stage in the negotiations.”

The letter continues:

“The areas normally covered in a trade agreement with a developed nation will be included. This ranges from trade in goods, services, public procurement, to regulatory issues and rules in intellectual property rights, sustainable development and customs. Some of the issues covered are areas of Member State competence or shared competence; the EU’s negotiating mandate was therefore agreed by consensus.”

Whenever I hear the word “consensus” in the context of EU administrative arrangements, I get slightly concerned, to say the least, because it means that a deal has been done behind closed doors. We know that the negotiating mandate is being discussed behind closed doors, and we need to know who is going to benefit most from these arrangements, and in which sectors.

We have only 12% of the votes in the qualified majority voting arrangements. This is an exclusive competence of the Commission, which drives the entire operation. It has no particular interest in what goes on in the United Kingdom, and I am entirely dubious about the claims that this agreement would generate £10 billion-worth of advantage to the UK. I do not know whether it will, and I do not think that the people who are saying that know. As Chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee, I would like to insist—so far as I can—that we be given all the necessary information.

Julian Smith: Does my hon. Friend agree that the 12 or 13-person team from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Foreign Office that focuses on trade should try to achieve some of the things that he is looking for when influencing the UK’s position in this deal?

Mr Cash: I am sure that they will do their best, but whether they will do well enough has yet to be established. If we do not know what is going on during the negotiations —and if we do not even know what the mandate is—I must express my concern on that count alone.
…….I shall continue to quote from the Prime Minister’s letter:

“As David Lidington told your Committee when he appeared before it on 4 July, while the confidential nature of such negotiations means that formally depositing documents is not possible”—
which I have to say concerns me greatly—

“Ministers will keep the Committee abreast of significant developments in writing and we are happy to offer the Committee informal, private briefings on the progress of negotiations.”

We will be monitoring all this. I see that the Chairman of the Business, Innovations and Skills Select Committee, the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey), is in the Chamber, and I would be happy to exchange ideas and thoughts with him on this. He was a member of the European Scrutiny Committee with me for many years.

Mr Jenkin: Does my hon. Friend agree that the challenge will be to reconcile the differing objectives of the member states? That will be extremely difficult because, as a major European economy, we uniquely depend on imports, and we export more to the rest of the world than all the other member states except Germany. At the same time, we are dependent on trade with the EU. We have a unique set of circumstances and a unique economy, and it is going to be extraordinarily difficult to reconcile our requirements with those of the other, very different economies of the EU in one single agreement.

Mr Cash: I very much concur with that.

A number of extremely learned articles have been written about this matter, and they show that many European countries stand to be gravely disadvantaged by the deal. I cannot claim that we would be exclusively enhanced by it, but many of the Parliaments and trade associations of many other countries will also be watching these developments. Several countries will be given quite a jolt. An article entitled “Transatlantic free trade: boon or bane for economic cohesion in the EU” states:

“in a broad free trade agreement, trade activities between Great Britain and Sweden as well as between Great Britain and Spain are expected to drop by about 45%. Likewise, Sweden’s imports and exports with Spain and Finland will decline by 40%, and Irish-Dutch trade relations will shrink by 35%.”

All those factors must be taken into account.

However enthusiastic we may be about the concept of free trade, it is important to ask whether the deal is actually going to be beneficial to the United Kingdom. It is our task to secure such benefits, and not only that of the EU. We also trade with the whole of the Commonwealth, and our trade relations with the emerging countries, the Commonwealth and the rest of the world have been going improving. We have a net surplus of trade with the rest of the world of about £15 billion a year, according to the latest figures for 2012. However, we have a trade deficit with Europe. The figure for 2011 was minus £47 billion; it is now minus £70 billion. The Germans, on the other hand, had a surplus in 2011 of £30 billion, and it is now £72 billion. Many people believe that the United States will benefit the most from the deal, and those figures suggest that it will weigh up all those factors when dealing with these questions. This is a potentially difficult situation that will have to be dealt with.

An article in the Financial Times states:

“There would also be damage around the world from a sweeping US-EU deal. Advanced countries such as Canada, Australia and Japan would suffer, as would many emerging economies. Mexico and Chile, which have strong trading ties with the US, would be among the worst hit, along with most of Africa, Asia and Latin America—with the exception of Brazil.”

Brazil is in a lot of difficulty at the moment, however. The article continues:

“China’s trade flows with the US would shrink”.

There are many elements of all this that need to be thought out.

In the short left, I shall draw the House’s attention to an article in Economia by Zaki Laïdi, entitled “Europe’s bad trade gamble”. Mr Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at the institute of politics known as Sciences Po in France. I am not saying that he has all the answers, but his article is well worth reading and can be obtained from the Library.

There are many conflicting views of the benefits that could be derived from the deal. The European Scrutiny Committee has made inquiries of the Government, and I would dispute the advantages of the EU-Korea free trade agreement. We know what the position is with regard to the EU, but unfortunately we cannot make any comparison with that arrangement to substantiate the claims of advantages for the UK.
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Mr Cash: Would the Chairman of the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee consider whether there will be a fast-track agreement in Congress, as this has been an issue of some contention? In that context and within the framework of the constitutional arrangements of the United States, it is important to bear in mind that the commercial rights of the states themselves are important, too.

Mr Bailey: The hon. Gentleman raises an important point. Provision exists within the US constitution for a fast-track process. To conform to the timetable we are looking at, that would certainly be necessary, and it is up to our negotiators to ensure that it happens. (…)

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Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North) (Con): It is a great privilege to follow the hon. Member for West Bromwich West (Mr Bailey), and I agree with much of what he had to say. Let me take the opportunity to congratulate the right hon. Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) and my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb), who played such an important part in creating the new all-party group, whose establishment is both timely and necessary if we are to realise some of the prizes that should flow from a new transatlantic trade deal. Let me make it clear, bearing in mind some of the speeches we have heard, that I regard myself as an old-fashioned Tory. I believe in free trade, and I think it crucial for parliamentarians here in the UK and throughout Europe to be well aware and fully informed of all the arguments and implications at the very earliest opportunity.

Mr Cash: Would my hon. Friend be kind enough to give way?

Jonathan Evans: I thought that would be inevitable.

Mr Cash: It is inevitable. When my hon. Friend referred to himself as an old-fashioned Tory, I was bound to reflect on the fact that nobody was much more protectionist than Disraeli and that nobody was more in favour of free trade than John Bright and Richard Cobden, who were of course Liberals.

Jonathan Evans: I cannot help thinking that we are missing my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg). I had thought that we were likely to get on to the corn laws at some stage of this debate, but let us move that issue to one side.

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Mr Cash: I want to make a simple point. Some of the commentators—I would include myself—are slightly concerned that the objectives from the European point of view are driven less by the question of free trade and more by the idea of becoming a linchpin of the moves towards political union so that they can stitch up deals all over the world under the Lisbon treaty, which would then result in a greater opportunity for political union. Does he agree that that is a possibility?

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Mr Cash: Is the right hon. Gentleman aware of an article by Fred Smith in Forbes Magazine from about 10 days ago? It illustrates the fact that the United States is concerned about the importation into the agreements of regulatory and environmental standards. That might be a sticking point.

Mr Spellar: There is the possibility of many sticking points. That is why it is so important to keep an eye on the bigger picture of the huge benefits. (…)

Mr Cash: I alluded to that in my speech. After inquiry, the European Scrutiny Committee was informed that it was difficult, if not impossible, to make a true comparison between the apparent benefits to the EU in general and the advantages to the UK individually, apart from in the car industry, where there appeared to be a distinct benefit.
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Mr Cash: Lord Mandelson said that when he was trade commissioner the over-regulation of business cost 4% of Europe’s GDP and about £6 billion a year to the British economy. Is that not something we should be tackling, and does the hon. Gentleman agree that some of his figures are based on estimates?

Mr Wright: The hon. Gentleman makes an important point. I was about to say that, as mentioned several times, the nature and structure of trade between the EU and the US is such that we do not have substantial or excessive trade barriers between the two blocs. Most of the gains would come from a reduction in non-tariff barriers. In response to his point, I would add that I am keen to see regulatory convergence. (…)

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Matthew Hancock: The incentive in the EU is for liberalisation, because overall the analysis of the European Commission and the analysis that we commissioned on the impact on the UK indicated a positive impact on every member state. Of course there are winners and losers, but the overall impact on each part of the EU will be positive. That is what the Commission’s analysis showed.

Mr Cash: Will the Minister be good enough to supply the European Scrutiny Committee with that analysis?

Matthew Hancock: Yes, of course. I was just about to move on to scrutiny, which came up in many Members’ contributions and is important. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash) about the uncertainty of forecasts and numbers, but I will give the Committee the analysis. The Committee will play an important part in scrutinising the negotiations. Of course, as many Members have said, the negotiations will be led by the Commission, so we must ensure that we do not get in the way of positive developments of substance by publishing things that the Commission would not want us to publish, but within those constraints we will ensure that we engage with the Committee, and indeed with Members on both sides. I think that it would be positive to have debates such as this one as the process goes forward.

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Question put and agreed to

Resolved,

That this House has considered the economic implications for the UK of an EU-US Trade and Investment Agreement.